GINSBURG, J.
The Sixth Amendment secures to criminal defendants the right to be tried by an impartial jury drawn from sources reflecting a fair cross section of the community. See Taylor v. Louisiana, 419 U. S. 522 (1975). The question presented in this case is whether that right was accorded to respondent Diapolis Smith, an African-American convicted of second-degree murder by an all-white jury in Kent County, Michigan in 1993. At the time of Smith’s trial, African-Americans constituted 7.28% of Kent County’s jury-eligible population, and 6% of the pool from which potential jurors were drawn.
In Duren v. Missouri, 439 U. S. 357 (1979), this Court described three showings a criminal defendant must make to establish a prima facie violation of the Sixth Amendment’s fair-cross-section requirement. He or she must show: “(1) that the group alleged to be excluded is a ‘distinctive’ group in the community; (2) that the representation of this group in venires from which juries are selected is not fair and reasonable in relation to the number of such persons in the community; and (3) that this underrepresentation is due to systematic exclusion of the group in the jury-selection process.” Id., at 364. The first showing is, in most cases, easily made; the second and third are more likely to generate controversy.
We here review the decision of the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit holding that Smith “satisf[ied] the prima facie test established by Duren,” and granting him habeas corpus relief, i.e., release from imprisonment absent a new trial commenced within 180 days of the Court of Appeals’ order. 543 F. 3d 326, 336 (2008). Despite marked differences between Smith’s case and Duren’s, and a cogent Michigan Supreme Court decision holding that Smith “ha[d] not shown . . . systematic exclusion,” People v. Smith, 463 Mich. 199, 205, 615 N. W. 2d 1, 3 (2000), the Sixth Circuit found the matter settled. Cognizant of the restrictions Congress placed on federal habeas review of state-court convictions, the Court of Appeals considered that a decision contrary to its own would “involv[e] an unreasonable application o[f] clearly established Federal law, as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States,” 28 U. S. C. §2254(d)(1). 543 F. 3d, at 335.
The Sixth Circuit erred in so ruling. No decision of this Court “clearly establishe[s]” Smith’s entitlement to federal-court relief. According to the Sixth Circuit, Smith had demonstrated that a Kent County prospective-juror assignment procedure, which Smith calls “siphoning,”“systematic[ally] exclu[ded]” African-Americans. Under this procedure, Kent County assigned prospective jurors first to local district courts, and, only after filling local needs, made remaining persons available to the countywide Circuit Court, which heard felony cases like Smith’s. The Michigan Supreme Court, however, had rejected Smith’s “siphoning” plea for lack of proof that the assignment procedure caused underrepresentation. Smith, 463 Mich., at 205, 615 N. W. 2d, at 3. As that determination was not at all unreasonable, the Sixth Circuit had no warrant to disturb it. See §2254(d)(2).
In addition to renewal of his “siphoning” argument, Smith here urges that a host of factors combined to reduce systematically the number of African-Americans appearing on Kent County jury lists, for example, the Kent County court’s practice of excusing people without adequate proof of alleged hardship, and the refusal of Kent County police to enforce orders for prospective jurors to appear. Brief for Respondent 53–54. Our decisions do not address factors of the kind Smith urges. We have cautioned, however, that “[t]he fair-cross-section principle must have much leeway in application.” Taylor, 419 U. S., at 537–538; see id., at 537 (Court’s holding that Sixth Amendment is violated by systematic exclusion of women from jury service “does not augur or authorize the fashioning of detailed jury-selection codes by federal courts.”).
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The trial court considered two means of measuring the extent of underrepresentation of African-Americans on Circuit Court venires: “absolute disparity” and “comparative disparity.” “Absolute disparity” is determined by subtracting the percentage of African-Americans in the jury pool (here, 6% in the six months leading up to Smith’s trial) from the percentage of African-Americans in the local, jury-eligible population (here, 7.28%). By an absolute disparity measure, therefore, African-Americans were underrepresented by 1.28%. “Comparative disparity” is determined by dividing the absolute disparity (here, 1.28%) by the group’s representation in the jury-eligible population (here, 7.28%). The quotient (here, 18%), showed that, in the six months prior to Smith’s trial, African-Americans were, on average, 18% less likely, when compared to the overall jury-eligible population, to be on the jury-service list. App. to Pet. for Cert. 215a.
Isolating the month Smith’s jury was selected, Smith’s statistics expert estimated that the comparative disparity was 34.8%. App. 181a. In the 11 months after Kent County discontinued the district-court-first assignment policy, the comparative disparity, on average, dropped from 18% to 15.1%. Id., at 102a–103a, 113a.
Smith also introduced the testimony of an expert indemographics and economics, who tied the underrepresentation to social and economic factors. In Kent County, the expert explained, these forces made African-Americans less likely than whites to receive or return juror-eligibility questionnaires, and more likely to assert a hardship excuse. Id., at 79a–80a.
The hearing convinced the trial court that African-Americans were underrepresented in Circuit Court venires. App. to Pet. for Cert. 210a. But Smith’s evidence was insufficient, that court held, to prove that the juror assignment order, or any other part of the jury-selection process, had systematically excluded African-Americans. Id., at 210a–212a. The court therefore rejected Smith’s fair-cross-section claim.
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As the Michigan Supreme Court correctly observed, see supra, at 6, neither Duren nor any other decision of this Court specifies the method or test courts must use to measure the representation of distinctive groups in jury pools. The courts below and the parties noted three methods employed or identified in lower federal court decisions: absolute disparity, comparative disparity, and standard deviation. See Smith, 463 Mich., at 204–205, 615 N. W. 2d, at 2–3; Brief for Petitioner 3; Brief for Respondent 26; supra, at 6–7.
Each test is imperfect. Absolute disparity and comparative disparity measurements, courts have recognized, can be misleading when, as here, “members of the distinctive group comp[ose] [only] a small percentage of those eligible for jury service.” Smith, 463 Mich., at 203–204, 615 N. W. 2d, at 2–3. And to our knowledge, “[n]o court . . . has accepted [a standard deviation analysis] alone as determinative in Sixth Amendment challenges to jury selection systems.” United States v. Rioux, 97 F. 3d 648, 655 (CA2 1996).
On direct review, as earlier stated, the Michigan Supreme Court chose no single method “to measur[e] whether representation was fair and reasonable.” Smith, 463 Mich., at 204, 615 N. W. 2d, at 3; see supra, at 7. Instead, it “adopt[ed] a case-by-case approach.” Smith, 463 Mich., at 204, 615 N. W. 2d, at 3. “Provided that the parties proffer sufficient evidence,” that court said, “the results of all of the tests [should be considered].” Ibid. In contrast, the Sixth Circuit declared that “[w]here the distinctive group alleged to have been underrepresented is small, as is the case here, the comparative disparity test is the more appropriate measure of underrepresentation.” 543 F. 3d, at 338.
Even in the absence of AEDPA’s [the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996] constraint, . . . we would have no cause to take sides today on the method or methods by which underrepresentation is appropriately measured. [Footnote omitted.] . . . .
Addressing the ground on which the Sixth Circuit rested its decision, Smith submits that the district-court-first assignment order systematically excluded African-Americans from Kent County Circuit Court venires. Brief for Respondent 46–48. But as the Michigan Supreme Court not at all unreasonably concluded, Smith, 463 Mich., at 205, 615 N. W. 2d, at 3, Smith’s evidence scarcely shows that the assignment order he targets caused underrepresentation. Although the record established that some officials and others in Kent County believed that the assignment order created racial disparities, and the County reversed the order in response, supra, at 5, the belief was not substantiated by Smith’s evidence. Evidence that African-Americans were underrepresented on the Circuit Court’s venires in significantly higher percentages than on the Grand Rapids District Court’s could have indicated that the assignment order made a critical difference. But, as the Michigan Supreme Court noted, Smith adduced no evidence to that effect. See Smith, 463 Mich., at 205, 615 N. W. 2d, at 3. Nor did Smith address whether Grand Rapids, which had the County’s largest African-American population, “ha[d] more need for jurors per capita than [any other district in Kent County].” Tr. of Oral Arg. 26; id., at 18, 37. Furthermore, Smith did not endeavor to compare the African-American representation levels in Circuit Court venires with those in the Federal District Court venires for the same region. See id., at 46–47; Duren, 439 U. S., at 367, n. 25.
Smith’s best evidence of systematic exclusion was offered by his statistics expert, who reported a decline in comparative underrepresentation, from 18 to 15.1%, after Kent County reversed the assignment order. See supra, at 5. This evidence—particularly in view of AEDPA’s instruction, §2254(d)(2)—is insufficient to support Smith’s claim that the assignment order caused the underrepresentation. As Smith’s counsel recognized at oral argument, this decrease could not fairly be described as “a big change.” Tr. of Oral Arg. 51; see ibid. (the drop was “a step in the right direction”). In short, Smith’s evidence gave the Michigan Supreme Court little reason to conclude that the district-court-first assignment order had a significantly adverse impact on the representation of African-Americans on Circuit Court venires.
To establish systematic exclusion, Smith contends, the defendant must show only that the underrepresentation is persistent and “produced by the method or ‘system’ used to select [jurors],” rather than by chance. Brief for Respondent 38, 40. In this regard, Smith catalogs a laundry list of factors in addition to the alleged “siphoning” that, he urges, rank as “systematic” causes of underrepresentation of African-Americans in Kent County’s jury pool. Id., at 53–54. Smith’s list includes the County’s practice of excusing people who merely alleged hardship or simply failed to show up for jury service, its reliance on mail notices, its failure to follow up on nonresponses, its use of residential addresses at least 15 months old, and the refusal of Kent County police to enforce court orders for the appearance of prospective jurors. Ibid.
No “clearly established” precedent of this Court supports Smith’s claim that he can make out a prima facie case merely by pointing to a host of factors that, individually or in combination, might contribute to a group’s underrepresentation. . . . .
This Court, furthermore, has never “clearly established” that jury-selection-process features of the kind on Smith’s list can give rise to a fair-cross-section claim. In Taylor, we “recognized broad discretion in the States” to “prescribe relevant qualifications for their jurors and to provide reasonable exemptions.” 419 U. S., at 537–538. And in Duren, the Court understood that hardship exemptions resembling those Smith assails might well “survive a fair cross-section challenge,” 439 U. S., at 370. [Footnote omitted.] In sum, the Michigan Supreme Court’s decision rejecting Smith’s fair cross-section claim is consistent with Duren and “involved [no] unreasonable application o[f] clearly established Federal law,” §2254(d)(1).
All Justices concur. Thomas, J., filed a concurring opinion.